St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

029
FXUS63 KEAX 260732
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
232 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unsettled weather conditions return Wednesday and will
  continue through the remainder of the week.
  - The severe weather and flooding threat appears low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The main changes with this forecast package will be to continue to
delay the onset of precipitation into the area until Wednesday
afternoon. Main cause for this forecast change is related to the
strength of the mid-lvl shortwave that is progged to move towards
the area today. This feature is now forecast to be much weaker as it
lifts north towards the area from the southern Plains. This feature
will washout is it approaches the area tonight, as such, conditions
are now expected to remain dry today and tonight. At the surface
today, a surface ridge of high pressure extending from the southern
Great Lakes back to the southwest into the local area will be in
control most of the day. Increasing cloud cover across the southern
CWA will hold highs in the lower 80s this afternoon but will rise
into the mid 80s further north where mostly sunny skies are expected
through the day today. Tomorrow, another mid-level shortwave will
lift northeast towards the forecast from the southern High Plains.
This will allow for the slight chance (15%-25%) of afternoon showers
and a few storms along a and south of the I-70 corridor. Thursday,
this mid-level shortwave will move over the area with increased
areal coverage of showers and storms expected with the greatest
probabilities (40-60%) across the southern CWA with only about a 10%
chance across the northern CWA. This mid-level trough will remain
anchored over the area Thursday night through Friday continuing the
chances for showers and thunderstorms. The greater chances for
showers and storms will remain diurnally driven with 50-70% chances
Friday afternoon south of I-70 with lesser chances further north.
Highs this week will be slightly above normal in the low to mid 80s.

A slight chance for precipitation (15%-30%) will continue into
Saturday for the southern and western CWA as yet another weak mid-
level shortwave attempts to lift north into the region. This feature
eventually washes out over the region as upper level ridging builds
into the central CONUS and a surface ridges build into the area from
the Upper Midwest by Sunday. These features will dominate the latter
half of the weakened through early next week providing dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


&&


.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Winds remain light generally SSE through the night
becoming more SE and accelerating after sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Pesel